THE PROBLEM
Manifold, Polymarket, Robinhood, and Kalshi all trade the same real-world events — but they disagree on the probability, sometimes by 20 points or more. That gap is free money for anyone who catches it first.
Will the US confirm alien life exists before 2027?
THE SOLUTION
ArbWatch scans all four platforms simultaneously, matches equivalent markets, and surfaces the spread in real time. No manual tab-switching. No missed opportunities.
Fetches current bids from every platform on demand. Always fresh.
Type a question once — we find the equivalent market on every platform automatically.
Exact trade instructions: which platform to buy YES on, which to buy NO on, and your expected return.
HOW IT WORKS
e.g. "Fed rate cut 2025" or "who wins the election"
Across Manifold, Polymarket, Robinhood, and Kalshi — instantly
Get alerted when the gap exceeds your threshold
Buy YES on the cheap platform, NO on the expensive one — lock in the spread